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cuaao.com • View topic - 誰最準確

誰最準確

誰最準確

Postby ambrosema on Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:55 am

[b]馬文廣[/b]

安省省選當晚,在點算結果初期,一位時事評論人接受某中文電臺訪問時,斷言自由黨會以「少數政府」姿態當選。到點算後期,自由黨獲得席位遠超於保守黨,可有達成「大多數政府」的趨勢,節目主持人質疑該評論人的推斷,他卻依然堅持己見。

翌日公佈結果,自由黨獲取五十三席,未過半數,只能籌組「少數政府」。該時事評論人能準確預測省選結果,並非擁有神機妙算,只是依據選前民調結果和當晚點算結果的走勢,憑個人的理解和分析來推斷。

由九月杪至十月初,先後有多間民調公司進行民意調查,然而發表的結果紛紜,莫衷一是。其中兩間採用非隨機方法來抽選受訪者,然後進行網上調查,由於抽樣方法嚴重降低樣本的代表性,而且受訪者局限於網絡使用者,所得結果的可靠性備受質疑。

此外,有三間公司採用隨機方法抽樣,其中兩間以電腦打電話進行調查。這技術雖省時省人手,但不若以「真人」打電話訪問般有效,因而影響所得資料的準確性;而且該技術不宜發出眾多問題,以致欠缺資料作深入分析。

另一間採用隨機抽樣方法的公司是以訪問員打電話進行調查,並於所得資料的個別變項作適當調節,提高樣本的代表性。該民調不但能夠搜集較多有用的資科,還可以準確地反映出選民的意向。

總括來說,民意調查的準確程度是決定於樣本的代表性、訪問方法的效力、及所得資料的質與量,缺一不可。

(本文轉載自明報副刋「明坊」內的專欄【無心的約會】。欲得悉民調準確性的更詳盡解釋,可參閱上載於 amkma.blogspot.com 的有關文章。)
ambrosema
 
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